Don't Give The Championship To Anyone Just Yet

SceneDaily.com
By Lee Montgomery - Associate Editor
Sunday, October 12, 2008

CONCORD, N.C. - - Leave it to the smartest driver in NASCAR to come up with the correct analysis of the Chase For The Sprint Cup.

Jeff Burton had just won the Bank of America 500 at Lowe's Motor Speedway, a stirring performance that moved him to second in the Chase standings.

Fans and media appeared poised to make him the Next Contender, falling in line behind Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.

But Burton had a warning.

"There's a lot that's going to happen between now and then," Burton said. And he wasn't talking about lunch. He was talking about the season-finale at Homestead.

"I mean, I know everybody keeps saying this, everybody wants to give somebody a trophy right now. Just hold on for a little while. We're halfway through this thing. Anything can happen. And, by the way, it probably will happen."

Darn right.

And while only two drivers are within 100 points of Johnson for the Chase lead - Burton and Greg Biffle - let's be honest here. As many as five more drivers could still get back in contention, given the right - or wrong - circumstances.

Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer are each within 200 points of Johnson, and Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon are within 245. Now, chances are good Johnson won't falter down the stretch, especially given his traditional Chase prowess, but you never know.

One bad race by Johnson, and there are five drivers back in contention, Two bad races, and maybe there are three more - and then, all bets are off.

Who's to say that early in next Sunday's race at Martinsville Speedway, Johnson gets caught up in an accident on lap 10 trying to maneuver through lapped traffic. The damage is substantial, let's say, and even though his Hendrick Motorsports team fixes the car, attrition is so low that Johnson finishes last.

And we've got a whole new ballgame.

Then, let's say Burton and Biffle slip in someone else's oil at Atlanta the next week and slam into the wall, eliminating both. Who leads the points then? Edwards? Bowyer? Harvick?

Who knows?

And that's the beauty of this Chase, of this thing we call NASCAR. Sure, you may think you know what's going to happen, but you're kidding yourself.

I've always chuckled at those who bet on NASCAR races. Could there be anything more unpredictable than NASCAR? Fine, throw your money away. Or better yet, cut me a check and save yourself the trouble.

Yes, Johnson is the guy to beat. But he can be beat.

And just remember what Burton said: "Anything can happen. And, by the way, it probably will happen."